In early October, my friend Lyla, my Sarah, and I set up a fundraiser for the election. Our goal? To decide where Lyla should donate $34,000 towards the election, and then get our friends to match with another $34,000.
We succeeded in our goal. In fact, we raised $84,123 to the following recipients:
(Note that the advice from where to donate was heavily followed, plus a heavy dose of swing senate races).
So, how did we do?
Well, none of these senate candidates won. So, that doesn’t feel great. Here is the postmortem I sent to our donors:
– We accurately predicted that Joe Biden had enough money and didn’t need more.
– We accurately predicted that the senate races were much more competitive / R-leaning than people thought.
– Our candidates lost. Pretty much all competitive candidates lost up and down the ballot. (Except Biden)
– This doesn’t feel great.
– If I were to do it all over again, I think I’d more dramatically push long-term base building organization, rather than campaigns. If nothing else, after election day, we would feel better.
– And we should feel good! We raised $36.901.75 for organizations that are sticking around for the long term. That’s a big chunk of money.
– That said, these two Georgia races are incredibly important. If we win them, that could have huge long-term consequences, due to the laws they could pass in the Senate.
– All in all, I’m proud of us.
A few days late, that still seems right. And it makes me redouble my faith in long-term base building over short-term electioneering.
Here’s the full initial pitch. It’s an interesting artifact of how I think about politics. Maybe you’ll find it interesting too.
Can you donate thousands of dollars, right now, to the election? If so, please do. I just donated thousands of dollars more. Sarah did 3k. Lyla donated 17,000 dollars, and another 17,000 as soon as her credit card allows her to. I want you to do so as well. Why? The chips are down and we need to do what we can so that we don't say that we didn't do all we could. And I don't want a dissonance between my intellectual understanding of the stakes and my actions. Maybe you're like me. Maybe you have money lying around, or have a great job (SF people, I'm looking at you!). Maybe you've been waiting for this nudge. We are trying to raise 68,000 dollars in the next few days. We're already at $23,980. If you have the means, this is a great strategic place for it all to go. Happy to answer questions or talk about it. == Though any money towards the election is good, I think you share with me a desire to be strategic. So here's my thinking: 1. Joe Biden cannot be a failed president. That means taking the senate. 2. If Trump wins, we absolutely need a D senate or very bad things happen 3. Every ten years, gerrymandering happens. Guess when the next time is? (Hint -- very soon) 4. Joe Biden has enough money. 5. This late in the race, ads are sadly one of the few things that can scale up quickly. We might prefer organizers etc, but they needed to be hired a year ago -- now is too late. 6. Campaigns get cheap TV ad rates -- market price (for any other organization, like a PAC or Super PAC) is about twice as high 7. All senate seats have the same power. Therefore, focus on the places with the highest utility for your dollar. Those are small, cheap states with less-prominent races that could still swing. Therefore: A. Donate directly to senate races. B. Donate to Maine, Iowa, South Carolina, Montana, Alaska. Also: 1. Not enough people are paying attention to the state legislative races that will determine control of gerrymandering, and therefore political power for a decade. 2. (You may remember that Republicans swept in 2010. This led to incredibly strong gerrymandering that has lead to minority rule for years) 3. The lower the level of race, the higher the marginal utility of your dollar, and the lower attention and money they're getting. Therefore: A. Donate to flip state legislatures B. I propose Sister District, but I'm open to a better organization Lastly: 1. Spending money on ads makes me sad. Why? Because while ads work, they only work for one race. They don't help the next guy get elected, they don't help other races in the same place. They're short-term effective but long-term wasteful. 2. Spending money on people power makes me happy. Why? Because people-power is more wholesome. But also people-power can exist after the election. Less short-term impact, much higher long term impact. (In terms of changing voting behavior) 3. Some places matter more than others. Imagine voting in a swing state vs voting in a swing state that has a senate race, a house race, and a state assembly race all on your ballot. 4. Already-existing community groups, that have been around for a while, have the proven ability to get people involved for the long term. And can scale people-power capacity much more easily than campaigns. Therefore: A. Donate to the Movement Voter Project, a kind of "fund" that disburses 100% of the money to community organizations. This is a blend of hard-headed strategic moves, and putting my money towards organizations that share my values. You might disagree. That's fine -- doing something matters much more than procrastinating by trying to find the "best" thing to do. If you choose some other organization or candidate — wonderful! I hope you join me, if you can. Thank you.